Bitcoin Could Hit $140K as Trump-Era Catalysts Fuel Rally

Derive analysts see Bitcoin targeting $140,000 and Ethereum $6,000 by year-end, citing rate cuts, pro-crypto policy, and surging treasury demand.

The cryptocurrency market may be on the cusp of its most aggressive bull run in years, with analysts forecasting dramatic price surges fueled by macroeconomic shifts and political tailwinds. Research from Derive, a crypto options exchange, projects Bitcoin could climb to $140,000 by December 2025, while Ethereum could rally toward $6,000—levels not seen in the industry’s history.

Read more: What is Bitcoin and Why It Matters in 2025

Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, argued that the bull market is “already underway,” driven by three converging forces: falling interest rates, pro-crypto positioning within the Trump administration, and the rapid growth of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).

Interest Rates Set the Stage

Falling borrowing costs remain the most immediate tailwind for digital assets. Dawson pointed to the 0.1% decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) in August—the first drop in four months following a sharp 0.7% rise in July—as a signal that the Federal Reserve will soon pivot to rate cuts.

Lower rates typically make bonds and other safe-haven assets less attractive, pushing investors toward higher-yielding, riskier markets such as cryptocurrencies. With the Trump administration openly supportive of easing monetary policy—evidenced by the controversial removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook—Derive sees liquidity rushing into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins in the months ahead.

Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Stance

The second major catalyst is political. Donald Trump has branded himself as “the crypto president,” while his administration and family members maintain significant exposure to digital assets.

• Donald Trump Jr. has made an eight-figure bet on prediction platform Polymarket.
• The Trump family collectively holds a $5 billion stake in WLFI.
• The $TRUMP token has gained traction among speculators.
• Trump Media recently finalized a $105 million partnership with Crypto.com, integrating CRO token rewards into Truth Social.

According to Dawson, these ties create “clear conflicts of interest” but also eliminate the regulatory uncertainty that plagued the sector in recent years. Instead, the White House’s alignment with digital assets could accelerate mainstream adoption and institutional entry.

Digital Asset Treasuries Gain Momentum

The third factor boosting Derive’s outlook is the rapid rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)—corporate entities that actively accumulate crypto for balance sheet diversification.

• MicroStrategy now controls more than 3% of the total Bitcoin supply, making it the single largest corporate holder.
• Firms such as Bitmine and Sharplink have aggressively accumulated Ethereum, together helping DATs secure nearly 4% of the total ETH supply in just the past four months.

These large-scale purchases act as both a liquidity sink and a form of leverage, amplifying price movements as demand escalates.

Price Targets and Scenarios

Derive’s projections include both bullish and bearish cases depending on macroeconomic conditions:

• Bitcoin
  • Base case: $140,000 by year-end
  • Cycle peak: $200,000–$250,000 if institutional inflows continue
  • Bear case: retest of $90,000 if trade tensions escalate
• Ethereum
  • Base case: $6,000 by December
  • Cycle top: $8,000, though more likely in mid-2026
  • Bear case: retreat to $3,000 under adverse global trade conditions

Dawson emphasized that “an advance toward $8,000 would likely signal the cycle top,” though Ethereum’s growth trajectory remains tied to DAT demand and Federal Reserve policy.

Stablecoins and the Next Altseason

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, stablecoins are positioned for substantial growth following the GENIUS Act, which establishes conditions for USD-backed stablecoins to hold U.S. government debt. With the stablecoin market already valued at $280 billion—led by Tether’s $127 billion—Coinbase projects a surge to $1.2 trillion by 2028.

Meanwhile, analysts expect a full-scale altseason, where speculative and hedging opportunities spread across the wider market. Dawson named Solana and XRP as secondary majors likely to lead the charge, with tokens such as HYPE, UNI, and AAVE benefiting from increased options volume later in the cycle.

Read more: Top 7 Altcoins to Watch in 2025

Risks from the AI-Driven Stock Market

Despite the bullish setup, Derive warns of systemic risks that could derail crypto’s momentum. Equity markets remain heavily concentrated in the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla—all of which are pouring resources into artificial intelligence.

These companies have committed $155 billion to AI development this year alone, raising concerns about unsustainable valuations. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has voiced cautious agreement with warnings of an AI-driven bubble.

Should investor sentiment shift and a correction ripple across equities, crypto markets could face a parallel downturn, given their increasing correlation with tech-sector performance.

Looking Ahead

With rate cuts on the horizon, a crypto-friendly administration in Washington, and institutional treasuries buying up supply, the stage appears set for Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new highs. Still, the possibility of a broader market correction tied to AI spending underscores the volatility that continues to define the digital asset space.

If Derive’s forecasts materialize, 2025 could close with Bitcoin at six figures, Ethereum doubling its prior all-time high, and stablecoins reshaping U.S. financial infrastructure. Whether this scenario unfolds will depend as much on macroeconomic stability as on crypto-native adoption, making the coming months among the most critical in the industry’s history.