Bitcoin Crash Unlikely Amid Lack of Market Euphoria – Analyst
Macro strategist Lyn Alden says current market conditions don’t point to a major capitulation, arguing that Bitcoin’s cycle is being shaped by macro trends rather than halving-driven hype.
Bitcoin’s latest downturn has revived familiar debates about cycle timing, macro risks, and the possibility of a deeper correction. Yet several leading analysts argue that market structure and sentiment point in a very different direction from the dramatic crash some traders fear. Among them is respected macroeconomist Lyn Alden, who believes the market has not shown the type of exuberance traditionally seen before major tops — and therefore is unlikely to face a severe capitulation event.
A Cycle Without Euphoria
Speaking on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden said she sees no signs that Bitcoin has reached the kind of overheated phase that typically precedes catastrophic drawdowns.
“We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation,” Alden said.
Unlike earlier bull markets, she noted, the current environment appears to be driven by broader macroeconomic factors and organic long-term interest in the asset, rather than the familiar four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving events.
“The cycle could go on for longer than people expect,” she added, dismissing the idea that halvings still define Bitcoin’s market structure.
Her viewpoint echoes recent comments from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who also rejected the traditional four-year cycle narrative and believes the market could remain constructive “for a good few years.”
Not Everyone Sees the Same Picture
Despite Alden’s view, some industry voices warn that pain may not be over. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, offered a starkly different outlook during the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, predicting a 65%–70% retracement within the next two years. His argument: many traders do not fully understand the asset they are speculating on.
Still, Budki maintains a deeply bullish long-term stance, forecasting that Bitcoin could climb to $1 million or more per coin within a decade.
Alden countered that markets often settle somewhere between the extremes investors imagine.
“It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out,” she said.
Price Weakness Tests Market Confidence
Bitcoin’s correction from its recent peak has amplified uncertainty. After setting new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, the asset slid to $80,700 on Oct. 20 before stabilizing near $87,500 at the time of writing, according to CryptoPulse’s MarketCap Tracker.
The sharp move caught many traders off guard, especially those who anticipated year-end strength or a move toward much higher levels. Some prominent market participants — including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes — had publicly discussed the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $250,000.
“No One Is Owed a Bull Market”
Alden cautioned investors against assuming that Bitcoin’s price must always trend upward after a drawdown. Market cycles, she argued, do not owe participants anything.
“People kind of get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market,” she said. “No one is owed a bull market.”
While she does expect Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level in 2026 and potentially set new all-time highs by 2027 at the latest, Alden stressed that timing remains uncertain — and investor expectations frequently outpace reality.
Analysts Split on Near-Term Outlook
Bitcoin May Stay Range-Bound
New research from XWIN Research Japan suggests Bitcoin could remain trapped between $60,000 and $80,000 through December, particularly if the U.S. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at the next FOMC meeting. A lack of policy clarity, the firm said, may keep risk appetite subdued until early 2026.
“Max-Pain” Zone Still Ahead?
Bitwise researcher André Dragosch warned that Bitcoin might dip further before establishing a definitive cycle bottom. He identified a “max-pain” zone between $73,000 and $84,000, which aligns with the estimated cost bases of major institutional players, including BlackRock’s IBIT ETF at around $84,000 and MicroStrategy’s latest acquisitions near $73,000.
According to Dragosch, the final bottom is “very likely” to form somewhere inside this band, a level he described as potential “fire sale” territory.
Some analysts argue that institutional investors, now deeply embedded in the market, may be reluctant to allow a more severe crash. Others contend that the market has not yet fully flushed out excess leverage. The divide reflects growing tension as Bitcoin trades within what many consider a fragile consolidation zone.
Institutions Keep Accumulating Despite Volatility
While sentiment remains cautious, some large players are doubling down on accumulation.
Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Strategy
Tokyo-listed Metaplanet has approved a $135 million perpetual preferred share offering to fund further Bitcoin acquisitions. The move strengthens the firm’s growing reputation as Asia’s closest analogue to MicroStrategy.
Saylor Says Corporate Treasuries Are Built for Drawdowns
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor pushed back against concerns surrounding corporate Bitcoin strategies, telling CNBC on Nov. 14 that his firm can endure extreme volatility.
Saylor said the company “can withstand an 80%–90% drawdown and keep operating” despite recent turbulence.
True to that message, MicroStrategy continued its accumulation streak this week, purchasing 8,178 BTC at $102,171 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 649,870 BTC.
El Salvador Adds to Treasury
As reported ealier, El Salvador has also been quietly accumulating during the downturn, adding more than 1,098 BTC in the first weeks of November. The country’s total Bitcoin reserves now stand at 7,474.37 BTC, even as broader markets faced heavy selling pressure.
The Road Ahead
Bitcoin finds itself in a moment defined by conflicting narratives: macro-driven caution, institutional conviction, and a community grappling with expectations. As Alden notes, markets rarely deliver the extremes investors imagine. The coming months will reveal whether Bitcoin remains range-bound, revisits the lower bands analysts fear, or begins the gradual climb toward its next major milestone. But one thing is clear: in a market increasingly shaped by long-term holders and institutional strategies, the old assumptions about cycle timing may no longer apply.
