Will The Bitcoin Price Close Out July In Green Or Red? Historical Data Gives Direction

So far in July, the Bitcoin price has shown positive movement, emerging from the bearish trend of June and rising to new monthly highs. While this increase has been encouraging, it still leaves doubt in the hearts of investors, as the BTC price remains below $70,000. With the month drawing close to a rapid end, the question remains if the Bitcoin price will finish out this month in the green or if it will succumb to the bears once again.

How Bitcoin Price Has Performed Historically

Historical data can often be useful for investors when it comes to volatile assets such as Bitcoin, as it could provide insight into where the price is headed next. For one, the BTC price has repeated the same trends, one of those being the four-year cycle of the bull markets.

On the shorter timeframe, looking at monthly performance can also be a helpful indicator for where the Bitcoin price might be headed next, especially taking into account how the months leading up to July have also performed in comparison to historical data.

Using data from Coinglass, we can see that the monthly returns for Bitcoin for the first quarter of the year stayed in line with performances from 2023. The first three months of January, February, and March have all been green, just like it was last year.

However, in the second quarter, the Bitcoin price took an interesting turn in terms of monthly performance. Instead of sticking with previous performances, each month has done the opposite of what happened in the same month in 2023.

For example, in April 2023, Bitcoin saw positive monthly returns of 2.81%, but in April 2024, it turned negative as the price crashed 14.76%. This was the case for both May and June, with an 11.07% increase in May 2024 compared to a 6.98% decline in May 2023, and a 6.96% decline in June 2024 compared to an 11.98% increase in June 2023.

Bitcoin monthly returns — Source: Coinglass

Going into the third quarter of the year, Bitcoin seems to be following the trend that started in the second quarter. With only a week left to go in July, the Bitcoin price is already up 7.27%, compared to a 4.02% decline in July 2023.

Now, if the third quarter goes in the same direction as the second quarter, it means that July could finish out July 2024 in the green. Furthermore, given that August 2023 saw the BTC price close out the month with an 11.29% loss, it bodes well for the price, as this could point to an increase in price going into August as well.