Bitcoin Reclaims $100K as Trade Talks and ETF Inflows Drive Rally

Renewed optimism in global trade and rising institutional demand fuel Bitcoin’s surge past six figures.

Bitcoin surged above the $100,000 mark for the first time since February, buoyed by renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and a notable rebound in institutional investment. The rally, which pushed the leading cryptocurrency to an intraday high of approximately $100,131, signals a potential resurgence of bullish momentum in the crypto market after a turbulent spring.

Although prices dipped slightly to hover around $99,300 later in the session, Bitcoin remains more than 30% above its April lows, when escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty rattled risk assets globally.

Trade Diplomacy Sparks Market Optimism

The rally was largely fueled by a shift in investor sentiment following a new trade agreement between the U.S. and China, which President Donald Trump described as a “maxed-out deal” that could evolve further through economic growth. At a press conference, Trump emphasized the scale and adaptability of the agreement, calling it a “tremendous” breakthrough that signaled a broader realignment of American trade policy after years of tit-for-tat tariffs.

“There’ll be changes made, there’ll be adjustments made because we’re flexible — but it’s very conclusive, and we think everyone’s going to be happy,” said Trump, defending the deal’s legitimacy amid criticism that it lacks depth.

British ambassador Peter Mandelson, while cautious about the details, underscored the deal’s symbolic significance, noting it could serve as a foundation for broader tariff reductions and deeper economic cooperation.

The agreement not only calmed equity markets but also sent a wave of optimism across crypto, traditionally sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. Charles Wayn, co-founder of Web3 platform Galxe, welcomed the announcement and highlighted its broader implications for the digital asset space.

“Today’s announcement of U.S. tariff concessions for the UK and potentially the UAE is great news for the crypto industry,” said Wayn, adding that the uncertainty had previously paused a bullish cycle many believed would last through mid-year.

He hinted that more trade deals could further stabilize markets, setting the stage for a potential altcoin resurgence.

ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Return

Bitcoin’s breakout wasn’t driven by retail enthusiasm alone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $142 million in net inflows on Wednesday, a sharp reversal from the previous day’s outflows. This marked one of the strongest single-day rebounds in ETF activity in weeks and signaled a return of institutional appetite for crypto exposure.

Market analysts attribute the inflows to several converging factors:

• Renewed trade diplomacy, particularly U.S. efforts to de-escalate tensions with China.
• Stability in U.S. interest rates, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, removing a key uncertainty that had loomed over risk assets.
• Improved macro outlook, supported by more dovish tones from central banks and declining volatility in traditional markets.

eToro and Wincent strategists noted that the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady helped shift capital back into higher-risk assets, including digital currencies.

Altcoins Join the Rally

Bitcoin’s breakout sparked widespread gains across the crypto market. Ethereum briefly pushed above $2,000, and Dogecoin soared past $0.18. The rally triggered a wave of short liquidations — $300 million in total, with $116 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out, according to CoinGlass.

Despite these sharp moves, volatility remains relatively muted. Bitcoin’s 30-day historic volatility is now at its lowest level in 18 months, suggesting that while prices are climbing, the pace is more measured than during previous surges.

Still, correlations between Bitcoin and traditional equities — particularly the S&P 500 — have ticked higher, reaching 0.9. This suggests that Bitcoin is still heavily influenced by macroeconomic trends and could be vulnerable to broader market shocks.

Forecasts Brighten — But Risks Remain

The latest rally has reignited speculation about where Bitcoin could go next. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, reaffirmed his $120,000 year-end price target, noting it might even be “too conservative” if geopolitical factors continue to drive investors away from U.S. equities and into alternative assets like Bitcoin.

While some market observers believe this could be the beginning of a sustained bull run, others caution that the path forward remains uncertain. With low volatility, rising institutional involvement, and a complex geopolitical backdrop, the market could shift quickly.

Key risk factors to watch include:

• Potential reversals in trade diplomacy or stalled negotiations
• Central bank policy surprises or unexpected interest rate hikes
• Rising correlations with traditional markets that could expose Bitcoin to broader downturns

Is Altseason Around the Corner?

The broader market is also watching for signs of an “altseason” — a period when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin. With capital flowing back into ETFs and overall crypto sentiment improving, analysts like Wayn believe conditions could soon become more favorable for altcoins.

“With more deals and concessions will come more certainty and better market conditions,” said Wayn. “The bull market may revive yet, and altseason could still be on the horizon.”

As always in crypto, momentum is volatile and can turn swiftly. But for now, bullish sentiment has returned, and the $100K mark once again serves as a rallying point for investor enthusiasm.

Conclusion: A Bullish Break or Just a Bounce?

Bitcoin’s reclaiming of $100,000 is more than just a psychological milestone — it reflects a growing shift in investor sentiment amid improving macroeconomic signals. The combination of revived trade diplomacy, surging ETF inflows, and stable interest rates has set the stage for a potential second-quarter breakout.

Whether this is the beginning of a sustained bull run or just another high in a volatile year remains to be seen. But for now, crypto markets are leaning bullish — and the return of six-figure Bitcoin is reigniting the spark that many feared had gone out.