Bitcoin Bull Run Not Over Yet, Says Bitfinex
Key indicators and miner behavior suggest more upside for BTC despite short-term volatility.
As Bitcoin hovers just below its all-time high, new analysis from crypto exchange Bitfinex suggests the ongoing bull market may still have room to run. Despite recent price fluctuations and macroeconomic headwinds, several on-chain metrics and market signals point to continued bullish momentum—if key support levels hold.
April Surge Defies Seasonal Trends
Bitcoin’s performance in April defied expectations, delivering stronger-than-average gains despite early-month turbulence. According to Bitfinex’s latest market report, BTC posted a 14.08% gain for April 2025, outperforming its historical April average of 13% and median return of 7.3%. The strong monthly close was seen as a positive signal amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty.
While Bitcoin typically performs well in April, recent years have seen less impressive results. This year’s performance stood out even more due to a rocky start caused by external pressures. Early in the month, former President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcements sparked fears of a trade war, sending Bitcoin’s price tumbling to a low of $74,501.
However, a depreciating U.S. dollar and rising inflation concerns reversed the trend. By month’s end, Bitcoin had recovered 32%, rallying to a local high of $97,900. This swift rebound reinforced investor confidence and highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience amid shifting macroeconomic narratives.
On-Chain Indicators Signal Confidence
Beyond price movements, Bitfinex pointed to on-chain metrics that reveal growing market confidence, particularly among Bitcoin miners—a cohort known for its sensitivity to market cycles.
- Miner reserves increased slightly from 1,808,315 BTC in December 2024 to 1,808,674 BTC as of May 5, indicating that miners are holding rather than selling, a sign they anticipate further price appreciation.
- The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue against historical norms, remains below 2, suggesting the market is not currently overheated.
Miners typically offload holdings during price spikes to cover operational costs. Their decision to hold during Bitcoin’s recent 32% rally implies they believe the current run has not yet reached its peak.
“The fact that they are still holding into this recent 32 percent recovery from the April lows supports the idea that, despite recent volatility and macro uncertainty, we may not have seen the final leg of the current bull cycle,” Bitfinex noted.
$95K Becomes Key Technical Battleground
Despite positive longer-term signals, Bitcoin faces immediate technical challenges. The $95,000 level has emerged as a pivotal zone that could determine the trajectory of the coming weeks.
According to Bitfinex, this price point marks the lower boundary of a consolidation range that defined market structure from November 2024 to February 2025. Reclaiming and holding this level would solidify a bullish trend reversal and could set the stage for a test of Bitcoin’s all-time highs.
However, failure to hold $95K may flip it into a resistance level, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction.
“The $95,000 level—currently under consolidation—is a critical pivot point,” Bitfinex explained. “The next several days will likely determine whether the recent strength evolves into a sustained breakout or resolves into a retest of lower support zones.”
Short-Term Holders Add Another Layer of Insight
In addition to miner behavior and price levels, Bitfinex’s report emphasized the significance of the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which is currently around $93,340. This metric, representing the average acquisition price of recently acquired BTC, serves as a useful indicator of market sentiment among newer investors.
Historically, when Bitcoin’s price stays above the STH cost basis, it reflects short-term bullish momentum. Conversely, falling below this threshold often precedes extended pullbacks.
Bitcoin has recently broken above the STH cost basis, providing another technical confirmation of upward momentum. However, maintaining this level will be essential to sustain confidence among newer market participants.
Macro Conditions Still Loom Large
Bitfinex also cautioned that broader economic forces could influence Bitcoin’s near-term direction. While on-chain data and price action lean bullish, macroeconomic instability—such as U.S. trade policy shifts, interest rate changes, and global inflation trends—remains a wild card.
The April rebound was aided in part by the weakening dollar and inflationary pressure, both of which tend to enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. However, any dramatic shifts in these underlying conditions could disrupt market momentum and test support levels.
Key Takeaways
Here are the most important insights from Bitfinex’s latest report:
- BTC rose 14.08% in April, outperforming historical averages.
- Price fell to $74,501 early in April but rebounded to $97,900, a 32% recovery.
- Miner reserves rose slightly, signaling long-term bullish expectations.
- The Puell Multiple remains below 2, suggesting no market top has been reached.
- $95,000 is a critical support level; flipping it could confirm a bullish breakout.
- STH cost basis at $93,340 now acts as a short-term support metric.
- Bitcoin was trading at $94,580 at the time of writing, about 13% below its all-time high.
Conclusion: Bullish Momentum Faces Crucial Test
The latest analysis from Bitfinex paints a cautiously optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s near future. While strong April performance, miner confidence, and key on-chain indicators suggest the bull run may not be over, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim and hold above $95,000 will be critical.
Short-term volatility is likely, but the long-term structure remains bullish—if macroeconomic stability holds. Whether Bitcoin can retest its all-time high depends largely on how it navigates the current consolidation phase.
As the market enters a pivotal moment, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s next move—will it break higher, or is a correction on the horizon?
